Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics in Northeast Asia and Pathways to the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
Year2026
Author Kim Sang-kyu
Original
Abstract
The geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia in 2025 is characterized by a dual structure in which short-term crisis management and mid-to-long-term instability operate simultaneously. While direct military conflict remains deterred, a fundamental diplomatic pivot toward resolving underlying tensions has yet to materialize. The region has evolved beyond the traditional binary of "stability versus crisis," entering an era where structural uncertainty has become a permanent feature of the security environment.
While inter-Korean relations fluctuate between confrontation and cooperation depending on mutual perceptions and policy shifts, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is inextricably linked to the broader global order. Therefore, it is essential to rigorously examine the primary variables within the international political arena.
Since North Korea’s late 2023 declaration of a "hostile two-state relationship," military tensions in the border regions have intensified. Although overt hostility has moderated following the inauguration of the Lee Jae-myung administration, North Korea continues to uphold its "two-state" doctrine and proceeds with extensive border fortification projects.
Since the breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi Summit, the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula has progressively worsened. The situation has reached a complex impasse, driven by North Korea’s declaration of its irreversible nuclear status, the conclusion of the North Korea-Russia strategic partnership treaty, and the resulting erosion of the international cooperation framework for denuclearization. As North Korea solidifies its position as a nuclear-armed state, domestic discourse regarding South Korea’s own nuclear armament is gaining significant traction within Korean society.
The objective of this study is to analyze the historical processes and lessons learned from past denuclearization discussions to propose a new framework for achieving a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, this research focuses on deriving policy implications and defining the role of local governments—specifically Gyeonggi Province—in complementing the diplomatic limitations of the central government.
While inter-Korean relations fluctuate between confrontation and cooperation depending on mutual perceptions and policy shifts, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is inextricably linked to the broader global order. Therefore, it is essential to rigorously examine the primary variables within the international political arena.
Since North Korea’s late 2023 declaration of a "hostile two-state relationship," military tensions in the border regions have intensified. Although overt hostility has moderated following the inauguration of the Lee Jae-myung administration, North Korea continues to uphold its "two-state" doctrine and proceeds with extensive border fortification projects.
Since the breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi Summit, the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula has progressively worsened. The situation has reached a complex impasse, driven by North Korea’s declaration of its irreversible nuclear status, the conclusion of the North Korea-Russia strategic partnership treaty, and the resulting erosion of the international cooperation framework for denuclearization. As North Korea solidifies its position as a nuclear-armed state, domestic discourse regarding South Korea’s own nuclear armament is gaining significant traction within Korean society.
The objective of this study is to analyze the historical processes and lessons learned from past denuclearization discussions to propose a new framework for achieving a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, this research focuses on deriving policy implications and defining the role of local governments—specifically Gyeonggi Province—in complementing the diplomatic limitations of the central government.
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